Starting Block: What's Ahead for NCAA Division I Basketball Newcomers?

Last year, Merrimack (Mass.) joined South Dakota (2008-09) as the only NCAA Division I newcomers in the last 33 years to reach the 20-win plateau in its inaugural campaign. How will newbies Bellarmine, UC San Diego, Dixie State and Tarleton State fare this campaign?

Only nine of the first 40 schools moving up to compete at DI in the 21st Century posted a winning record in their debut campaign. The average first-year mark for the previous 40 newcomers was 10-19. Eight of the nine best first-year seasons occurred in the 1970s when 40 of the 70 institutions elevating their programs to DI during the decade promptly posted winning records.

In 1971-72, Southwestern Louisiana, subsequently known as Louisiana-Lafayette and University of Louisiana, became the only school ever to finish in Top 10 of final DI rankings the year after placing in Top 10 of final Division II poll. The Ragin' Cajuns were one of three schools from the Pelican State to win at least 80% of their games in inaugural campaign at DI level in the 1970s (joined by Southern and McNeese State). But it wasn't long before USL was prohibited from fielding a formal team for two seasons (1973-74 and 1974-75) as part of an NCAA probation. Larry Fogle (transferred to Canisius), Fred Saunders (Syracuse) and Robert Wilson (Iowa State) - three of USL's top four rebounders in 1972-73 - were immediately eligible at other schools the next season, combining for 59.4 ppg and 32.6 rpg in 1973-74 when Fogle became the last sophomore to lead nation in scoring in the 20th Century (Griffs-record 33.4 ppg).

Alabama State (22-6 in 1982-83) is the only school since the 1970s to win more than three-fourths of its games in its DI debut campaign. Following is a first-year summary of schools moving up to the major-college ranks after the initial season of NCAA classification in 1947-48:

School Moving Up to DI Season W. L. Pct.
Maryland-Eastern Shore 1973-74 27 2 .931
Oral Roberts (Okla.) 1971-72 26 2 .929
Southwestern Louisiana 1971-72 23 3 .885
Seattle 1952-53 29 4 .879
Old Dominion (Va.) 1976-77 25 4 .862
Long Beach State 1969-70 24 5 .828
Hawaii 1970-71 23 5 .821
Southern (La.) 1977-78 23 5 .821
McNeese State (La.) 1973-74 20 5 .800
Jackson State (Miss.) 1977-78 19 5 .792
Alabama State 1982-83 22 6 .786
Alcorn State (Miss.) 1977-78 22 7 .759
Idaho State 1958-59 21 7 .750
Memphis State 1955-56 20 7 .741
Air Force 1957-58 17 6 .739
Stephen F. Austin (Tex.) 1986-87 22 8 .733
Georgia Southern 1973-74 19 7 .731
Northeastern (Mass.) 1972-73 19 7 .731
Virginia Commonwealth 1973-74 17 7 .708
College of Charleston (S.C.) 1991-92 19 8 .704
Miami (Fla.) 1948-49 19 8 .704
New Orleans 1975-76 18 8 .692
South Dakota 2008-09 20 9 .690
George Mason (Va.) 1978-79 17 8 .680
Weber State (Utah) 1963-64 17 8 .680
American (D.C.) 1966-67 16 8 .667
Fairfield (Conn.) 1964-65 14 7 .667
Florida A&M 1978-79 18 9 .667
Mercer (Ga.) 1973-74 16 8 .667
Tennessee Tech 1955-56 14 7 .667
Morehead State (Ky.) 1955-56 19 10 .655
James Madison (Va.) 1976-77 17 9 .654
Northwestern State (La.) 1976-77 17 9 .654
UNLV 1969-70 17 9 .654
Merrimack (Mass.) 2019-20 20 11 .645
Abilene Christian (Tex.) 1970-71 15 9 .625
Arkansas State 1970-71 15 9 .625
Drexel (Pa.) 1973-74 15 9 .625
Lamar (Tex.) 1969-70 15 9 .625
Massachusetts 1961-62 15 9 .625
Northern Colorado 1973-74 15 9 .625
UC Santa Barbara 1963-64 18 11 .621
Incarnate Word (Tex.) 2014-15 18 11 .621
Delaware State 1973-74 18 11 .621
Illinois State 1971-72 16 10 .615
North Carolina A&T 1973-74 16 10 .615
UNC-Wilmington 1976-77 16 10 .615
Northeast Louisiana 1973-74 16 10 .615
Texas Southern 1977-78 16 10 .615
Austin Peay (Tenn.) 1963-64 14 9 .609
Southern Mississippi 1968-69 15 10 .600
Chattanooga 1977-78 16 11 .593
Chicago State 1984-85 16 11 .593
Wright State (Ohio) 1987-88 16 11 .593
Loyola New Orleans (La.) 1951-52 20 14 .588
Los Angeles State 1970-71 15 11 .577
UNC Asheville 1986-87 15 11 .577
San Jose State 1952-53 15 11 .577
UAB 1978-79 15 11 .577
New Mexico State 1950-51 19 14 .576
Kentucky Wesleyan 1956-57 16 12 .571
North Dakota 2008-09 16 12 .571
North Dakota State 2005-06 16 12 .571
Radford (Va.) 1984-85 16 12 .571
Sam Houston State (Tex.) 1986-87 16 12 .571
Utah Valley 2004-05 16 12 .571
East Tennessee State 1958-59 13 10 .565
East Carolina 1964-65 12 10 .545
Cal State Fullerton 1974-75 13 11 .542
New Mexico 1950-51 13 11 .542
Southern Illinois 1967-68 13 11 .542
Boise State (Idaho) 1971-72 14 12 .538
Central Michigan 1973-74 14 12 .538
UNC Charlotte 1972-73 14 12 .538
West Texas State 1950-51 14 12 .538
Wisconsin-Milwaukee 1973-74 14 12 .538
Oklahoma City 1950-51 16 14 .533
Iona (N.Y.) 1953-54 11 10 .524
Corpus Christi (Tex.) 1972-73 13 12 .520
Belmont (Tenn.) 1998-99 14 13 .519
Eastern Illinois 1981-82 14 13 .519
Illinois-Chicago 1981-82 14 13 .519
Southeastern Louisiana 1980-81 14 13 .519
Western Illinois 1981-82 14 13 .519
Wisconsin-Green Bay 1981-82 14 13 .519
Cal State Bakersfield 2006-07 15 14 .517
Gonzaga (Wash.) 1952-53 15 14 .517
California Baptist 2018-19 16 15 .516
Catholic (D.C.) 1976-77 13 13 .500
Centenary (La.) 1959-60 12 12 .500
Grand Canyon (Ariz.) 2013-14 15 15 .500
Saint Peter's (N.J.) 1964-65 10 10 .500
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi 1999-00 13 13 .500
Texas Tech 1950-51 14 14 .500
Vermont 1961-62 12 12 .500
Murray State (Ky.) 1953-54 15 16 .484
Troy State (Ala.) 1993-94 13 14 .481
Hofstra (N.Y.) 1966-67 12 13 .480
Tennessee State 1977-78 11 12 .478
Regis (Colo.) 1961-62 10 11 .476
Bethune-Cookman (Fla.) 1980-81 13 15 .464
Hardin-Simmons (Tex.) 1950-51 13 15 .464
South Carolina State 1973-74 13 15 .464
Southwest Missouri State 1982-83 13 15 .464
Marist (N.Y.) 1981-82 12 14 .462
San Diego State 1970-71 12 14 .462
Maine 1961-62 11 13 .458
Fairleigh Dickinson (N.J.) 1967-68 10 12 .455
Mount St. Mary's (Md.) 1988-89 12 15 .444
Oakland (Mich.) 1998-99 12 15 .444
South Florida 1973-74 11 14 .440
Coastal Carolina (S.C.) 1986-87 12 16 .429
Maryland-Baltimore County 1986-87 12 16 .429
Southeast Missouri State 1991-92 12 16 .429
Howard University (D.C.) 1973-74 11 15 .423
West Chester State (Pa.) 1973-74 11 15 .423
Grambling State (La.) 1977-78 10 14 .417
Northern Illinois 1967-68 10 14 .417
Saint Francis (Pa.) 1955-56 10 14 .417
Kennesaw State (Ga.) 2005-06 12 17 .414
Elon (N.C.) 1998-99 11 16 .407
IUPUI (Ind.) 1998-99 11 16 .407
Northern Kentucky 2012-13 11 16 .407
Delaware 1957-58 8 12 .400
Texas-El Paso 1950-51 10 15 .400
Albany (N.Y.) 1999-00 11 17 .393
UC Davis 2004-05 11 17 .393
Houston 1950-51 11 17 .393
Cleveland State 1972-73 9 14 .391
High Point (N.C.) 1998-99 10 16 .385
Louisiana Tech 1973-74 8 13 .381
Ball State (Ind.) 1971-72 9 15 .375
Campbell (N.C.) 1977-78 9 15 .375
Rider (N.J.) 1967-68 9 15 .375
Alabama A&M 1998-99 10 17 .370
Coppin State (Md.) 1985-86 10 17 .370
Jacksonville State (Ala.) 1995-96 10 17 .370
Liberty (Va.) 1988-89 10 17 .370
Central Florida 1984-85 10 18 .357
UMass Lowell 2013-14 10 18 .357
Southern Utah 1988-89 10 18 .357
Nebraska-Omaha 2012-13 11 20 .355
Florida State 1956-57 9 17 .346
Fresno State 1955-56 9 17 .346
Hampton (Va.) 1995-96 9 17 .346
Loyola Marymount (Calif.) 1949-50 9 17 .346
Middle Tennessee State 1958-59 9 17 .346
Pacific (Calif.) 1953-54 9 17 .346
Towson State (Md.) 1979-80 9 17 .346
Central Arkansas 2006-07 10 20 .333
Missouri-Kansas City 1987-88 9 18 .333
Quinnipiac (Conn.) 1998-99 9 18 .333
SIU-Edwardsville 2008-09 10 20 .333
U.S. International (Calif.) 1981-82 9 18 .333
Western Carolina 1976-77 8 16 .333
Florida Gulf Coast 2007-08 10 21 .323
Binghamton (N.Y.) 2001-02 9 19 .321
Florida International 1987-88 9 19 .321
Portland State 1972-73 9 19 .321
UC Irvine 1977-78 8 17 .320
UC Riverside 2000-01 8 17 .320
Jacksonville (Fla.) 1966-67 8 17 .320
Texas-Pan American 1968-69 8 17 .320
Portland 1953-54 6 13 .316
North Alabama 2018-19 10 22 .312
South Dakota State 2005-06 9 20 .310
Eastern Michigan 1973-74 8 18 .308
Texas-Arlington 1968-69 8 18 .308
Arizona State 1950-51 8 19 .296
Northern Arizona 1950-51 8 19 .296
Northern Iowa 1980-81 8 19 .296
Texas-San Antonio 1981-82 8 19 .296
South Alabama 1971-72 7 17 .292
Augusta (Ga.) 1984-85 8 20 .286
Cal State Northridge 1990-91 8 20 .286
Winthrop (S.C.) 1986-87 8 20 .286
Central Connecticut State 1986-87 8 21 .276
Bryant (R.I.) 2001-02 7 19 .269
Providence 1948-49 7 19 .269
Robert Morris (Pa.) 1976-77 7 19 .269
Tennessee-Martin 1992-93 7 19 .269
Evansville (Ind.)* 1977-78 1 3 .250
Hartford (Conn.) 1984-85 7 21 .250
IU PU-Fort Wayne (Ind.) 2001-02 7 21 .250
UNC-Greensboro 1991-92 7 21 .250
Houston Baptist 1973-74 6 19 .240
Trinity (Tex.) 1970-71 5 16 .238
South Carolina Upstate 2007-08 7 23 .233
Arkansas-Little Rock 1978-79 6 20 .231
Southwest Texas State 1984-85 6 20 .231
Stetson (Fla.) 1971-72 6 20 .231
Lipscomb (Tenn.) 2001-02 6 21 .222
Monmouth (N.J.) 1983-84 6 21 .222
Norfolk State (Va.) 1997-98 6 21 .222
Armstrong State (Ga.) 1986-87 6 22 .214
Nicholls State (La.) 1980-81 6 22 .214
North Florida 2005-06 6 22 .214
Stony Brook (N.Y.) 1999-00 6 23 .207
Appalachian State (N.C.) 1973-74 5 20 .200
Baptist (S.C.) 1974-75 4 16 .200
Buffalo 1973-74 5 20 .200
Samford (Ala.) 1972-73 5 20 .200
San Diego 1979-80 5 20 .200
Longwood (Va.) 2003-04 5 22 .185
Gardner-Webb (N.C.) 2002-03 5 24 .172
New Jersey Institute of Tech 2006-07 5 24 .172
Winston-Salem State (N.C.) 2006-07 5 24 .172
Presbyterian (S.C.) 2007-08 5 25 .167
Baltimore 1978-79 4 21 .160
Savannah State (Ga.) 2000-01 4 21 .160
Eastern Washington 1983-84 4 22 .154
Utica (N.Y.) 1981-82 4 22 .154
Wofford (S.C.) 1995-96 4 22 .154
Arkansas-Pine Bluff 1997-98 4 23 .148
Cal State Sacramento 1991-92 4 24 .143
North Texas State 1957-58 3 18 .143
North Carolina Central 2007-08 4 26 .133
New Hampshire 1961-62 3 20 .130
Wagner (N.Y.) 1976-77 3 21 .125
Florida Atlantic 1993-94 3 24 .111
Mississippi Valley State 1979-80 3 24 .111
Morgan State (Md.) 1984-85 3 25 .107
Sacred Heart (Conn.) 1999-00 3 25 .107
Prairie View A&M (Tex.) 1980-81 2 22 .083
Pepperdine (Calif.) 1955-56 2 24 .077
Northeastern Illinois 1990-91 2 25 .074
Georgia State 1973-74 1 25 .038
Cal Poly 1994-95 1 26 .037

*Evansville had an abbreviated schedule because of tragic plane crash.