Odds Against Duke & UK Winning NCAA Title After Losing Multiple Undergrads
February 1st, 2016 - 19:10
Kentucky faces the same dilemma after multiple undergraduate members of its regular rotation departed a Final Four team four times in a five-year span to display their wares in the NBA. Each Final Four since 1995 had at least one school promptly lose a minimum of one player early to the NBA, including all four participants in 2007 (Florida, Georgetown, Ohio State and UCLA). But what happened to those national semifinal schools such as Kentucky and defending champion Duke with multiple players declaring early for the NBA? It's no great mystery as to why the Blue Devils fell out of the national rankings for the first time in eight years after having three undergraduates picked among the top 24 NBA draft picks in 2015.
The first 15 "star light" schools with multiple defectors failed to reach an NCAA regional final the next season until Kentucky reversed the trend with a national championship in 2012 after losing Brandon Knight and DeAndre Liggins in 2011. But UK, after freshmen Julius Randle and James Young were among the top 17 NBA draft choices in 2014, couldn't duplicate that feat last year. It would have been one of the greatest achievements in college basketball history if UK returned to the 2013 Final Four after losing five undergraduates from the 38-2 NCAA titlist although two of them (Doron Lamb and Marquis Teague) have had virtually no NBA impact. The perils of losing so much young talent was reflected in the Wildcats' failure to reach the NCAA playoffs and losing in the opening round of the NIT against Robert Morris.
The only team in this category other than UK to lose fewer than seven games was Duke (29-5 in 1999-00). After the first 13 squads thus far this century suffered an average of nine defeats in the wake of multiple pro defections, Kentucky won 38 in a row last season before bowing against Wisconsin in the national semifinals, which was a significant departure from the following chronological look at how Final Four schools fared the year after having multiple players renounce their college eligibility:
| Year | Final Four Team | Multiple Undergraduates Declaring For NBA Draft | Record | Postseason Outcome Next Season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1995 | Arkansas (2) | Scotty Thurman (undrafted), Corliss Williamson (13th pick overall) | 20-13 | Lost regional semifinal |
| 1995 | North Carolina (2) | Jerry Stackhouse (3rd), Rasheed Wallace (4th) | 21-11 | Lost in second round |
| 1996 | Mississippi State (2) | Erick Dampier (10th), Dontae' Jones (21st) | 12-18 | Did not qualify |
| 1998 | North Carolina (2) | Vince Carter (5th), Antawn Jamison (4th) | 24-10 | Lost in first round |
| 1999 | Duke (3) | William Avery (14th), Elton Brand (1st), Corey Maggette (13th) | 29-5 | Lost regional semifinal |
| 2000 | Florida (2) | Donnell Harvey (22nd), Mike Miller (5th) | 24-7 | Lost in second round |
| 2001 | Arizona (3) | Gilbert Arenas (31st), Richard Jefferson (13th), Michael Wright (39th) | 24-10 | Lost regional semifinal |
| 2001 | Michigan State (2) | Zach Randolph (19th), Jason Richardson (5th) | 19-12 | Lost in first round |
| 2004 | Connecticut (2) | Ben Gordon (3rd), Emeka Okafor (2nd) | 23-8 | Lost in second round |
| 2005 | Illinois (2) | Dee Brown (undrafted), Deron Williams (3rd) | 26-7 | Lost in second round |
| 2005 | North Carolina (4) | Raymond Felton (5th), Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th), Marvin Williams (2nd) | 23-8 | Lost in second round |
| 2007 | Florida (4) | Corey Brewer (7th), Taurean Green (52nd), Al Horford (3rd), Joakim Noah (9th) | 24-12 | Reached NIT semifinals |
| 2007 | Ohio State (3) | Mike Conley Jr. (4th), Daequan Cook (21st), Greg Oden (1st) | 24-13 | Won NIT |
| 2008 | Kansas (3) | Darrell Arthur (27th), Mario Chalmers (34th), Brandon Rush (13th) | 27-8 | Lost regional semifinal |
| 2008 | UCLA (3) | Kevin Love (5th), Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (37th), Russell Westbrook (4th) | 26-9 | Lost in second round |
| 2011 | Kentucky (2) | Brandon Knight (8th), DeAndre Liggins (53rd) | 38-2 | Won national title |
| 2012 | Kentucky (5) | Anthony Davis (1st), Terrence Jones (18th), Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (2nd), Doron Lamb (42nd), Marquis Teague (29th) | 21-12 | Lost in NIT first round |
| 2013 | Michigan (2) | Trey Burke (9th), Tim Hardaway Jr. (24th) | 28-9 | Lost regional final |
| 2014 | Kentucky (2) | Julius Randle (7th), James Young (17th) | 38-1 | Lost in national semifinals |
| 2015 | Duke (3) | Tyus Jones (24th), Jahlil Okafor (3rd), Justise Winslow (10th) | TBD | TBD |
| 2015 | Kentucky (6) | Devin Booker (13th), Willie Cauley-Stein (6th), Andrew Harrison (44th), Dakari Johnson (48th), Trey Lyles (12th), Karl-Anthony Towns (1st) | TBD | TBD |